What’s new? Q4/FY 2021 results did not include any surprises, other than 2022 net income / RoTE outlook revised downwards by -10% / -100bps (we attribute this to the more aggressive NPE reduction achieved in 2021) while not accounting for the UKR-RUS war / geopolitical consequences; also, there is no mention on 2024 targets, unlike…
In this note we are addressing the main themes surrounding Greek Banks. Part of the note is in Q&A form. Themes include new lending, DTA, interest rates and valuation. We present our estimates for 2022-2024 in the spreadsheet attached. The power of momentum. What GR banks lack in mass, they make up for in velocity….
This note is about investing, not trading or event-driven ideas. We believe our OI rated stocks will outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis in the next 12-18 months. We recommend you own OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Alpha Bank and ADMIE. We downgrade OTE given it is trading at our target price. We assume the pandemic…
What’s new? Alpha Bank was the last GR bank to report Q3 results yesterday. General picture: Banks are doing a good job with NPEs, which are going down (securitized) fast, while new NPEs are negligible. Normalizing CoR drove annualized pre-tax RoTE at 8%. However, a good part of pre-tax income reflects NPE and TLTRO income,…
Going through the numbers, we reach the same conclusion as for Piraeus and NBG. Greek banks have a challenging task to replace NPE and TLTRO income via new loans and higher fees; and together with normalized CoR move to high-single digit RoTE (as per their guidance). On our calculations, Alpha Q2 NPE & TLTRO Income…