What’s new? Alpha Q2 2022 results were mixed, as NII and core PPP went up by 2%-7% qoq on our calculations, whereas normalized earnings dropped by -25% qoq or by -45% qoq according to the bank, on higher CoR. We find Alpha’s ‘normalized’ calculations confusing and believe ‘adjusted’ would be a more appropriate term. We…
What’s new? Inspired by IMF’s recent blog, that places Greece among the 5 least affected EU countries from a full Russian gas cutoff, we outline our thoughts and arguments below as to why Greece is probably a better investment case than what is implied by the energy crisis, inflation- recession fears, and the ongoing impact…
Imagine someone is cutting off your energy/gas supply (QE) while pounding you with heavy artillery weapons (interest rates). The focus is on surviving the war with the help of your allies (ECB)*. Our mid-year strategy report is about which equities can get through stagflation with the least casualties. As we noted in our Feb note:…
What’s new? We summarize the main points from Q1 2022 results released last week. Clean PPP for the 4 banks stood at E765m, unchanged from E762m in Q4 2021. Clean pre-tax income came in at 533m from E469m in Q4 (+13% qoq) thanks to an equivalent reduction in impairments. Three things stood out: a) big…
Our base case scenario is Greek banks will weather the geopolitical crisis even if they must deal with a short-term spike in their bad loan ratios. They have limited to zero exposure to RUS and UKR. This saves them any direct impact, but their business will be indirectly affected as consumers see their disposable income…