Piraeus Bank

Greek Banks completed reporting Q3 results. Net income and RoTE came in stronger than expected. We model…

In the last month, last week and since ECB Oct 17th rate cut, Greek banks have underperformed the Athens Index and Euro Stoxx Banks. Alpha and Eurobank have suffered the most. Local noise blames a series of stock placements and bond issuances draining liquidity. We believe Greek Banks weakness has more to do with…

In this F4T note we look at the historical cash flow statements of the 4 systemic banks. Specifically, the period between 2016 – 2024, i.e. right after the 2015 capital controls. Our goal is to explain the different cash amounts on the balance sheet over TLTRO funding…

With this note we are updating our estimates, target prices and ratings for Greek banks, following Q2 results. We are also sharing our Sector Map, in which we have compiled the main Q2 numbers. We outline the main points below. In short, Q2 was a good set of results for the sector, supported by the…

In the following paragraphs we are trying to answer the following questions: 1) What is the valuation of Greek banks based on their own 2024-2026 guidance? 2) What are the key inputs/buffers? 3) What is the sensitivity to different CoE estimates? 4) What is the sensitivity to higher RoTE 2024? 5) Where do we differ…