Judging Greek equities’ rise today (+3.4%) and in the last four sessions (+8.1%) we understand investors are optimistic that Greece will soon (within May) strike a deal with its creditors and avoid defaulting on its payments; If this is the case then Greek stocks and especially banks, which are down by more than 60% in…
We downgrade 2016 sector earnings estimates by 22% (now at E2.7bn) as we expect sovereign uncertainty to cast its shadow for the remaining of 2015, hindering liquidity, deposit rates, lending growth and overall economic growth prospects. Normalization has been pushed back with banks unable to resume their intermediary funding role, let alone generate decent RoTE…
We cut our 2016E net income by 18% driven by Greek NII; sector trades 0.67x TBV 2016E and 6.2x P/E following recent sell-off, on 10.8% RoTE. We upgrade NBG on valuation grounds (PT at E2.5); superior PPP and implied RoTE; asset quality/coverage capacity; uncovered NPLs at 93% of TE (lowest among peers); biggest upside to…
ECB/EBA AQR and stress tests; DTA conversion into DTC can be a real game-changer adding E10bn/+42%/+430bps to CET1 capital in Q2 FL B3 terms. Short term we expect equities to trade lower on volatility caused by politics, the risk of early elections and negotiations with the Troika over public debt. Long term we expect asset…
Net income at E164m in Q2 turning to losses of E384m (E331m in Q1) if we strip out various one-offs including additional DTA recognized; NII +4.4% qoq as NIM expanded +15bps at 2.7% but lower other income and higher costs pushed PPP -3.5% qoq ; NPL ratio at 38.5%or +60bps qoq (Greece 38.9%, +70bps) with…