OTE reiterated 2021 FY cash flow guidance E480m reported / 6.8% yield (E575m adjusted / 8.2% yield) which points to a cash dividend of E313m (65% – paid) and buy-back of E168m (35% – ongoing). These numbers do not include the proceeds from the sale of TR (paid by Q1 2022). Moreover, they do not include the E80m excess money generated in 2018-20, which OTE is saving (along with any excess amount in 2021) for shareholders when operations normalize from Covid. Without counting for this money, we project E545m of reported cash flow (7.7% yield) next year (2022) to be paid to shareholders via dividends and buy-backs on a 65%-35% split. OTE’s yield is enough reason to…

We do not know when rates will go up nor when inflationary pressure will ease off nor when Covid will be history. Considering our limited conviction on the abovementioned threats, we believe our OWN IT rated names will do better than the rest since barring the banks the cash flow potential is second to none. Most importantly we model related cash flow yields of c10% for this year and next.

Or 40.8m shares from current shareholder Third Point for -reportedly- E33m or E0.80/share, close to previous closing price, valuing the bank at 0.30x TBV Q1 2021. The two sides have signed an SPA for Third Point’s remaining 2.7% stake, with Eurobank potentially owning 12.6% in the 2nd biggest CY bank in loan terms (21%). On the one hand, Eurobank has learned to appreciate foreign earnings contribution…

Management quantified an expected value creation of E600-E835m from the first phase of the project crystalized in 2025, not discounted in today’s terms. They also expect NPV expansion from the existing malls and the second Ellinikon phase (E0.8-E1bn) not addressed in this note. The presentation slides, the live webcast by management, and the feedback we received is the best experience we have had in corporate Greece by far. Hopefully, Lamda will not face any unforeseen obstacles and delays for the benefit of shareholders and for Greeks themselves who are thirsty for this urban development project. Please refer to page 2 for phase one snapshot. In a nutshell financing up to 2025 seems secured with pre-sales working out for the 27 beach villas and somewhat for the high-rise marina tower building (c200 luxury apartments) as well as for the retail and office projects. The two malls which will be mainly debt financed; we value at exit multiples. To what extent Golden Hall and Mall of Athens will be impacted it remains to be seen. We think they will.

MOH refining margin is down from an average $9/bbl in 2015-2018 to $6.5/bbl in 2019-2020; and the outlook does not look any brighter; MOH hit a refining margin of $6.2/bbl in Q1 while MED benchmark margins remained at low levels in Q2. The company has ‘lost’ half of its refining EBITDA (or E200m-E250m) vs. 2018 on an adjusted basis (i.e., excluding inventory gains or losses). The impact is worse than what refining margin alone would imply, due to…