What’s new? OPAP released Q4/FY results, surprised us positively with an overall E1.5/share (11% yield) payment to shareholders (o/w E0.10 interim DPS already paid) and provided GGR/EBITDA guidance for 2022 pointing to c.40% growth yoy. Conclusion: We are happy with our OI rating. Q4 results came in above our estimates by 15%-20% on stronger on-line contribution (betting and casino). Shareholders’ remuneration is also above our E1.0 (E0.9 excl. interim) estimate. Notwithstanding any war escalation to the RoW, we reiterate our conviction on cash flow generation and dividend payments.

What’s new? Q4 2021 clean PPP and net income of E165m/E111m came in above our estimates by 15%-20% driven mainly by lower operating costs and lower impairments; Actual pre-tax RoTE was higher by 150bps. It seems we had underestimated the cost cutting performance of the bank. We had long favored NBG as a runner-up to Alpha Bank. We are now making it official by changing our rating to OI with a PT of E3.9 (from E3.5).
We believe NBG deserves to be trading at a higher P/TBV multiple than the current 0.50x; it enjoys the highest FL CET1 among GR banks; will benefit the most from a loan rate increase given its low L/D ratio; boasts the lowest combination of NPE ratio and NPE coverage.
The high DTA/DTC portion against TBV and CET1 is the biggest risk along with lower-than-expected net lending. On DTA, resuming dividend payments will be a good test about how regulators are thinking about its recoverability; on new loans we stand at the low end of the guidance.

What’s new? We are updating our latest assessment on PPC (Feb 3) following recent developments (war conflict in UKR and energy prices) and the share price weakness. Our initial take is included at the end of this note. We focus on the impact from the government’s latest initiatives to alleviate the high energy cost from Greek households and businesses.
Conclusion: We are not changing our valuation or estimates; we reiterate our OI and PT of E13.5: a) we do not consider the E9bn /2022-2026 business plan to be at risk; b) nor that PPC will need additional funding to implement it. If anything, recent developments have intensified authorities’ urge to diversify both the energy supply (away from Russia) and generation (away from fossil fuels). We consider the share price performance has improved the attractiveness of the investment case.

What’s new? Ever since our last update (Dec 9), Russia invaded Ukraine and soon after SAR announced a E55m acquisition (enterprise value) in Poland, its biggest M&A deal in the last many years. Sarantis is present in Ukraine through its 90% owned subsidiary Ergopack (home and personal care products), contributing E28m of sales and E1.5m EBIT in 2020. This would be less than 7% of total sales and 3% of total EBITDA, and therefore seems manageable, both P&L and in valuation terms. The worst-case scenario would be for SAR to write-off the entire carrying value of Ergopack, which we estimate at E18m-E20m. Latest available financial accounts of Ergopack show equity of E19m (EUR/UAH at 32) with zero debt. If not a full write-off, SAR will not avoid an impairment, in our view.

What’s new? Q4/FY 2021 results did not include any surprises, other than 2022 net income / RoTE outlook revised downwards by -10% / -100bps (we attribute this to the more aggressive NPE reduction achieved in 2021) while not accounting for the UKR-RUS war / geopolitical consequences; also, there is no mention on 2024 targets, unlike SCI’s Project Tomorrow presentation nine months ago calling for 10% RoTE. Alpha Bank delivered E330m of clean net income / 6% of adjusted RoTE in 2021, in line with Project Tomorrow guidance. NPE targets for c.E3.0bn in 2022 was reiterated, followed by >12% FL CET1 and the intention to resume dividends out of 2023 earnings. At this point we will repeat the thoughts we made around Eurobank’s updated targets: The important point is that the outlook does not account at all for the UKR-RUS war currently raging and its consequences on the macro landscape or asset quality driven by higher energy prices and the potential of stagflation. In this sense, analyzing the guidance is rather meaningless.