What’s new? MYT published flash note results for the full year (2022), reporting record profits and a tremendous beat against our and consensus estimates. We will not be changing our forecasts and recommendation until the audited results, full report and notes are published on March 3. In the meantime, we outline our thoughts on the flash note results below.
• At first glance, the +E464m yoy increase in EBITDA seems to include c. E250m of war-crisis driven earnings. Namely, gas trading (+E108m), electricity supply (+E80m) and Aluminium (+E60m).
• The presentation reads ‘record financial performance despite global challenges.’ We argue the correct wording is ‘because of’ global challengers, not ‘despite’…

What’s new? The Greek TSO (IPTO), 51% owned by ADMIE Holdings, wants* the regulator to increase 2022-2025 RAB returns (RoRAB), from 6.1% to 8.5% (pre-tax), claiming both cost of equity and cost of debt parameters are on the rise ever since the initial decision was taken (Sep). Our understanding is that PMI returns will not change (+1ppt).
Conclusion. IPTO is right. It is impossible to find a (pre-tax) WACC as low as 6% for any Greek company these days. The regulator is right too. IPTO does not really need a higher WACC to implement its 2022-2025 RAB expansion**. Not on our estimates. Perhaps a small increase (50-100bps) to reflect the +75bps higher cost of debt could satisfy both sides. At the end of the day, the regulator may or may not sympathize.

What’s new? We are concerned with Nova-Wind’s more-aggressive-than-expected commercial policy announced on Jan 11 and the potential ARPU/EBITDA impact on OTE. The dividend & share buyback for 2023 is not necessarily at risk thanks to OTE dividend-intended cash buffers. But 2023-2024 EBITDA could be, as we doubt OTE will let subscribers go. In the end, Nova’s zero margin/cash burning strategy could backfire, but the market damage will be done, nevertheless.
This time is different, or isn’t it? Wind has always been cheaper than OTE. What changes now is a) Nova and United group, owned by private equity BC Partners; b) the new tariffs are even cheaper than before and are backed up by an aggressive marketing campaign. As Greek residents, we confirm that Nova-Wind marketing ads are everywhere; c) Nova-Wind seems willing to sacrifice the entire EBITDA margin to add volume.

What’s new? Jumbo announced December’s trading, with monthly sales up +22% yoy and FY 2022 sales up +14% yoy. This is slightly better than the company’s revised guidance (a month ago) for +13% yoy full year sales growth and our own +12% assumption. They also said a) January sales trading so far is ‘simply outstanding’; b) guidance for 2023 will be provided within the first four months of the year; and c) investment and dividend policy objectives will be maintained.

What’s new? We are still struggling to comprehend the premium on Terna Energy’s speculated E22-E23/share M&A price, but this does not change the fact that GEK is reportedly close to selling its 37% stake in the company.
Stub valuation. If GEK pockets c. E1.0bn from the sale, what does that mean for the implied valuation of the remaining major assets/investments in its portfolio, namely concessions, construction, thermal power?