Top line at +7.23% in 1H14;this seems to imply some upside risk on 2014 and 2015 earnings which if materialized will put the shares on …to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

PPP in Q3 was down 16% qoq on weaker other income/higher general costs; NII +8% qoq on reduced funding costs. NPL formation -60bps (incl. write-offs); CoR +10bps to maintain coverage at 52% (Q2 51%). EBA CT1 at 13.5% which combined with our PPP forecasts for the next two years provide a capital cushion of E4.3bn above 9% CT1 – enough to deal with an implied NPL or 50% (now at 33%; restructured loans at 7%) assuming 50% coverage target. Asset quality remains the main issue for Alpha and the sector. We reiterate DOI with a new PT of E0.58 (was E0.51) after pushing valuation to 2014….to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

Leading to EBITDA upgrades for this year and next. Pricing was above our expectations and specifically in the US. Where there should be more increases next year. Strong FCF generation should continue. Will the Greek 2006-08 era repeat itself? EBITDA of cE190m?. If yes perpetual EBITDA could flirt with E500m and our target price with …to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

PPP in Q3 -24% qoq on weaker performance from Finansbank. Management said Turkish NIM will grow in 2014, Blackrock test will not lead to more capital needs and the NPL ratio will peak in 2014/early 2015 (incl. write-offs). EBA CT1 will reach 10% (9M pro-forma at 9.4%) before selling a minority stake in FS. NII in Greece and SEE grew +1.5% qoq. Group NPL formation +110bps with NPL ratio at 21.9% (GR 27.1%). We estimate a capital buffer of E4.0bn, enough to cover for an implied NPL ratio of 33% assuming 50% coverage. We re-balance our estimates, raise our PT to E3.2 (from E3.0) and reiterate DOI rating – shares trade 2.7x P/TE 2014E….to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

3Q13 was strong on profits; not so good on cash flow yet. Results distorted by inventory and receivables write-downs booked in 1H13. We reconstruct parts of the balance sheet and conclude to working capital increase. And model negative FCF this year and positive at E33m and E36m in 2014E and 2015E. Shares are on P/FCF of 42x next year, if we exclude HDF from the price. If our estimates are correct the market discounts FCF of E182m in perpetuity or is there ….to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com