We do not change our estimates. Our target price goes up at E5.5 on a much lower risk free rate and can go up by another E0.5-E0.7 for every 1% IKEA LfL beat. If our sensitivity analysis is correct shares would reach double digits on …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
Fourlis – Perhaps the best play if Greek GDP grows >3%
March 1st, 2014Jumbo – Record profits, record FCF, EPS on growth trajectory
March 1st, 2014Jumbo continues to deliver in a class of its own. And on track to managing record profits this year to then break the record next year. EBITDA should increase by 12% on average over 2015 and 2016. While FCF generation is above expectations managing an unreal E100m in 1H. Our sensitivity analysis implies E0.5 on our target price for 1% beat in Greek LfL. If Greece reverts to GDP growth of 3-4% in 2015 and 2016 our target price climbs to …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
Titan Cement – Reset for Growth
February 28th, 2014Titan has reset for growth. US operations – the strongest link over the next couple of years. Group sales CAGR of 10% and operating leverage leads to EBITDA margin expansion. Despite our cautious stance on Egypt and Turkey, Titan should expand its EBITDA margin by 630bps by 2016E . This is not in the price we think. FCF >E100m per annum despite increase in capex to satisfy demand. In 2013 Topline growth of 4% in 2013 and EBITDA margin of 16.7% is pretty impressive, considering the E21m negative FX hit. Looking ahead…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
OPAP – Game Changing – Upgrade to OWN IT
February 24th, 2014Investment case re-visited & re-rated; Why OWN IT: 1/ Exciting business plan; 2/ Exploiting an existing market with VLTs; 3/ Undemanding VLT valuation; 4/ EPS/FCF/DPS in upward trajectory; 5/ Bear case scenario on p.3 is comforting; 6/More upside to our PT from settlement of land-based GGR taxes (p. 9); volatilty and catalysts…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
Titan Cement – US Reloaded – Upgrade to OWN IT
February 19th, 2014We were wrong to think the US operations were in the price. With this report we up our EBITDA forecasts by 15%, which puts the shares on 6.7x EBITDA in 2016. We underestimated Titan’s pricing power once…but not again. We consider 2013 as the inflexion point and we expect margin improvement over the next couple of years. One of the strongest management teams in corporate Greece …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com