It is impossible to estimate the outcome of the ECB/EBA AQR & Stress Test exercise on Greek banks. We believe there is a good chance Greek banks will not need to raise more capital given their recent recap and restructuring plans (approved by DG Comp); the results will be announced in late October. We have constructed a plug-and-play spreadsheet where readers can impose their own AQR assumptions on 2013 numbers and further stress 2014-2016 NPL and coverage ratios for each systemic GR bank (adverse and baseline scenario). …to access this report and spreadsheet contact ResearchGreece at contact@researchgreece.com

We downgrade the shares to DOI on limited share price upside potential due to EPS cuts again. In retrospect we should have downgraded Titan in June at E26; we underestimated Egypt. Today we reduce our EBITDA by 9% on average over 2014-16 or by 19% since our upgrade. We expect Egypt related EBITDA to hit an all time record low. Before solving the energy problem on the back of two coal mills and recovering in 2015. We conclude this year should be one of the same for Titan with EBITDA at par with last year. Next year we model incremental EBITDA of E39m with US 43% of the delta and Egypt 38%. Forecasting the Egyptian business is impossible at best – the reason behind our DOI rating. Our new target price is at E22.7 or at 7.7x 2016 EBITDA.

2014 finished strong on sales +8% or 1.2pct better than our estimates. Cyprus better than expected and potentially responsible for most of the sales delta. On the other hand shares are off 30% from this year’s highs. We see no fundamental reason for such underperformance = reiterate our OWN IT rating. We model Greek LfL of 2.3% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016 – it could be better on …

It will be hard for Helex to repeat Q2 ADV of E192m in the next quarters given the overhang of the ECB stress tests, political risk and debt negotiations. We stick to our DOI rating; PT is now E9.0 (was E8.5) with EPS +18% in 2014E (+25% higher ADV at E150m) and -4% in 2015-2017E…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Sarantis announced today the acquisition of Czech cosmetics company ASTRID for E6.5m; this implies P/S 2013 of 0.93x and a pre-tax P/E of 11.0x going down to 3x-4x on a post-synergies basis; we estimate the acquisition is 6.5%-8.5% EPS accretive (2014E pro-forma); move re-affirms Sarantis strategy to use its strong balance sheet to expands its business. We expect more such EPS and PT accretive moves and we reiterate our OI rating. The investment case is too compelling to ignore…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com