The Greek telco market has witnessed some interesting changes / developments in the last weeks. Some of which have been long speculated/flagged/communicated by market participants. We summarize these below, together with our thoughts and comments on what these might mean for the business performance of the different operators. It will take a while for the dust to settle. Until it does we can only speculate on the impact. As usual we will start with our conclusions: OTE’s investment case is not affected by recent developments. The incumbent is not a sitting duck. This means that our OI rating does not change. Combined with the special dividend this year from the sale of TR, OTE remains a compelling cash flow – dividend case, with a risk-reward profile making it a no-brainer for investor portfolios, in our view.

This is better than what we expected. OTE guides for E480m reported cash flow (8.5% yield) to be paid E313m in cash dividend (2/3; 5.5% yield) and E167m via buybacks (1/3; 3.0% yield). These numbers do not include the special dividend from TR sale. Assuming E100m out of E268m sale price, shareholders will pocket E580m total remuneration. We reiterate…

We estimate reported cash flow of E440m in 2021 plus a (minimum) special dividend of E100m-E120m from the sale of TR fixed. OTE’s declared remuneration policy implies shareholders will pocket E400m in cash dividends and the rest E150m via buybacks. Adjusted free cash flow will not exceed E540m on our estimates (from E610m in 2020) due to the loss of Romanian EBITDA, partially offset by cost-cutting. Beyond 2021, reported cash flows and ordinary remuneration should rise further to E550m on cost cutting and lower capex. We discount cash flows at 7% and up our 2021 PT to…

With this note we briefly share our views on all the names we cover. We start with our OI picks, followed by Radar and DOI names. We have added several names in our Universe, most of which on a Not Rated (NR) basis.

Valuation: Price Target at…