Q1 2026 NII/PPP/net grew by +25%/+25%/+22% yoy while coming in +1.1%/-2.1%/-0.4% vs the bank’s own compiled consensus. RoTE at 25%. Loans +38%/+E1.5bn yoy with deposits +34%/+E1.6bn yoy (L/D at 85%).

We highlight the CET1 ratio declining by 43bps qoq/166bps yoy to 11.76% thanks to strong asset growth; and Stage 2 inflows at +E250m qoq/+E313m yoy, around 3x the average annual movement witnessed in 2025.

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Greek Banks reported Q1 results last week. As expected, (L4L) NII and core PPP declined (-9% yoy/-5% qoq) on lower Euribor (-135bps/-45bps). The solid run rate on fees, lower time depos and -potentially- stronger loan volumes resulted in banks confirming FY targets, even if Euribor ends up 25bps lower than budgeted.

Greek economic growth and fiscal discipline support lending & fee expansion. Deposit dynamics and strong asset quality support organic earnings/capital generation. While accommodating for higher payouts, with buybacks contributing to EPS growth.

This is our BoP Greek equities briefing. We have not made many changes compared to our semi-annual one in July: we downgraded Alpha and Helex; and upgraded Eurobank. Plus, we re-visited GEK, reiterating OI and replacing its soon-to-be-delisted RES subsidiary, Terna Energy.