What’s new? This update can be best summarized by adding ‘Solidarity Tax’ to our latest note titled ‘Unprecedented Earnings’, published two weeks ago on Q2 results. The European Commission used a different term: ‘Solidarity Contribution’ on excess profits generated from activities of oil, gas, coal, and refinery sectors. Equal to a 33% charge against 2022…
What’s new? Motor Oil and Hellenic Petroleum reported astonishingly strong Q2 results, with their adjusted EBITDA at E500m (each) and free cash flow at E300m (MOH) to E500m (Hellenic). The outstanding performance is attributed to the remarkable refining margins recorded in Q2 ($22/bbl for MOH and $26/bbl for Hellenic), driven by solid demand, the short…
What’s new? Inspired by IMF’s recent blog, that places Greece among the 5 least affected EU countries from a full Russian gas cutoff, we outline our thoughts and arguments below as to why Greece is probably a better investment case than what is implied by the energy crisis, inflation- recession fears, and the ongoing impact…
Imagine someone is cutting off your energy/gas supply (QE) while pounding you with heavy artillery weapons (interest rates). The focus is on surviving the war with the help of your allies (ECB)*. Our mid-year strategy report is about which equities can get through stagflation with the least casualties. As we noted in our Feb note:…
What’s new? We upgraded Motor Oil to OWN IT (OI) on May 3 on the back of its breakthrough expansion deal in renewables (report re-attached). But so far in the year, it is the refining business that has been thriving; with the adjusted refining margin at $85/MT in Q1 (from $47/MT in 2021) and Q2…