What’s new? In this note we analyze how much of reported / actual 9M 2021 NAV is attributed to the Ellinikon project and how much to the ‘old’ Lamda assets. With shares trading 7% below 9M 2021 NAV, we can also infer how much of Ellinikon is discounted into the current market cap. We present our own NAV estimates and repeat the comparison, to see if there is a big-enough discrepancy to be exploited. Conclusion: Out of the latest reported NAV, E633m or 46% is attributed to Ellinikon. The company clarifies this relates to land only, but we understand the assessment has taken into consideration future developments, therefore it does not make much of a difference, in our view. The above implies investors need to start incorporating Phase 2 of Ellinikon (2026-2035) in their assessment to end up with a meaningful upside on the stock.

Management quantified an expected value creation of E600-E835m from the first phase of the project crystalized in 2025, not discounted in today’s terms. They also expect NPV expansion from the existing malls and the second Ellinikon phase (E0.8-E1bn) not addressed in this note. The presentation slides, the live webcast by management, and the feedback we received is the best experience we have had in corporate Greece by far. Hopefully, Lamda will not face any unforeseen obstacles and delays for the benefit of shareholders and for Greeks themselves who are thirsty for this urban development project. Please refer to page 2 for phase one snapshot. In a nutshell financing up to 2025 seems secured with pre-sales working out for the 27 beach villas and somewhat for the high-rise marina tower building (c200 luxury apartments) as well as for the retail and office projects. The two malls which will be mainly debt financed; we value at exit multiples. To what extent Golden Hall and Mall of Athens will be impacted it remains to be seen. We think they will.

With this note we briefly share our views on all the names we cover. We start with our OI picks, followed by Radar and DOI names. We have added several names in our Universe, most of which on a Not Rated (NR) basis.