We think it is extremely difficult to discount the medium term; the next two months can be extremely volatile in light of a potential parliamentary election. The first presidential vote count is tomorrow; politics will drive the market/economy in the short term – for a change. During the Greek crisis it has been the economy driving politics; the unavoidable deadlock came when the Troika asked for more fiscal measures for 2015 turning the snap 2015 presidential election  – to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Greece is +13% since the elections with ADV >E280m; we conclude this is driven by re-rating rather than upgrades in earnings; only a handful of companies have scope for upgrade in earnings in our view; the ones that combine both catalysts (re-rating and EPS upside) are Jumbo (OI), Titan (OI), Eurobank (OI) and Motor Oil (OI); in our research note we compare 2016E with 2007-08 peak earnings (scope for upgrades; p. 5); we test 200bps lower discount rates (re-rating; p. 8); we highlight points from IMF’s latest review on Greece (p. 9).  …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

Nothing really changed post Q1; all drivers (deposit spreads, cost cutting, NPL formation) in place; we revisited our 2013-2016 bridges making small changes to our pre-provision and bottom line forecasts. We stick to our normalized RoTE estimates and valuation assumptions; we reiterate our rating on each bank; cannot exclude a market re-rating…

1/ Eurobank: OWN IT based on 0.9x P/TE and 7.4x P/E 2016E pro-forma for E3bn capital increase; 2/ Earnings: bridging 2013 to 2016; 3/ Price Target sensitivities based on different RoTE/CoE; 4/ Asset quality update – 2013; 5/ Warrants: fair value estimates; biggest catalyst: asset quality; on a like-for-like basis we favor Eurobank given the valuation gap with peers; Need normalized RoTE >15% for Alpha and Piraeus and >20% for National for risk/reward to pay off, in our view…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

We argue 2013 marks the end of a bad year for Greek refiners. We believe Motor Oil is the best way to exploit a -gradual- recovery in refining margins (middle cracks) driven by increasing demand for oil products in Greece, normalization of crude sourcing and capacity re-balancing. We revise our EBITDA estimates by 15-30% in 2014-16E but the lower discount rate used pushes our PT higher on both names. We identify a pair trade by owning Motor Oil and selling Hellenic Petroleum… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com