We estimate OTE’s new E85m/700 NoE VES (third in the last four years) could save up to E32m of EBITDA in net terms (+2.4%) while boosting EBITDA margin by +85bps. Valuation wise it could boost our PT by c. 3% closer to E11 per share. We reiterate our OI rating. See our VES sensitivity matrix and assumptions on the note attached…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

We stick to our OI rating on FCFE yields of 13% in 2015E and 15% in 2016E. Investors should be buying on any share price weakness; EV/EBITDA 2015E at 3.9x; Pay TV could add 6% on group EBITDA and +E0.75 to our PT following recent sports content agreements (Champions & Europa Leagues). Dividend to be reinstated next year (out of 2014 earnings).

Q1 showed mixed trends with strong EBITDA coming out of the Greek fixed business (opex cuts) and weak EBITDA out of mobile operations (competition/MTR). We only fine-tune our estimates at this stage as the fixed line strength in Greece was anticipated while the mobile weakness was offset by better fixed ops in Romania. Our FY 2014 EBITDA and net income estimates remain unchanged at E1.426bn and E327m. We see downside risk in our Romanian mobile EBITDA due to the April MTR cuts. Our price target is also unchanged at E13.7 and we reiterate our DOI rating. Shares are trading at a 25% discount to European peers (EV/EBITDA 15E) –roughly the upside implied by our PT; not attractive enough given the flattish EBITDA outlook. contact@researchgreece.com

We raise our 2014-2016 EBITDA estimates by 10-15% mainly on cost cutting; combined with a lower discount rate for the fixed line business we up our target price to E13.7; shares are up by 35% in the last three months. Is there any further upside from here? See our report attached (18 pages)… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

Q3 results came in line with our estimates. Cost-cutting continues to compensate for top line weakness (macro, MTR cuts). We fine-tune our 2013-2016 numbers; roll forward our valuation by one year; raise our PT to E8.0/share and reiterate our DOI rating. Cost-cutting is priced in. Top-line is not and this is what OTE needs…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com