We downgrade our rating to DOI as the recent one-month rally on the shares (+29% vs. +6% for the Athens Index) has pushed the share price at par with our price target. We believe there is far bigger upside elsewhere in our Greek equities universe. Further upside requires…contact@researchgreece.com

Shares now at a 17-month low and net cash/mkt cap at 50% compared to 35% historically; P/E 2015E at 9.5x adjusted for cash vs. 12.9x historical average; Risk/reward wise we recommend long-term investors build a position; Helex trades as per investors perception on the sovereign; we have lowered our ADV and EPS estimates by 10-30% in 2014-17E as we are adopting a more conservative stance for the next 12 months.

It will be hard for Helex to repeat Q2 ADV of E192m in the next quarters given the overhang of the ECB stress tests, political risk and debt negotiations. We stick to our DOI rating; PT is now E9.0 (was E8.5) with EPS +18% in 2014E (+25% higher ADV at E150m) and -4% in 2015-2017E…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

FY results in line with our estimates, excluding the E13m one-off tax. E0.2/sh return to shareholders is below our estimates. We reiterate ADV of E120m in 2014 (YTD at E106m) and E180m in 2015 and raise 2017E to E300m (from E250m). Terminal velocity rate at 68% and market cap/GDP at 52%. This pace implies double-digit EPS growth in the next 3 years (+25% CAGR). Unless investors incorporate ADV to reach E300m this year already, we reckon shares are fully valued at 13x EBITDA 2015E. Our 10% 2015-16 EPS downgrade is offset by the higher terminal ADV. We reiterate our E8.5/sh PT. What is the best-case valuation scenario for the shares? See our report… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

At current levels investors are ‘buying’ 2016-17E ADV of E250m (2013: E87m) based on E100bn GR total market cap (2013E: E70bn), nominal GDP of E210bn (market cap/GDP: c.50%), velocity of 65% and listing fees of c.E12m (10YR clean average); crystallizing into net income of E40m, or a P/E of 13x 2017E. For the shares to re-rate meaningfully, it would take ADV >E300m with market cap at E130bn and flat velocity rates (or E100bn market cap with >80% velocity). Admitting to our higher-than-average risk aversion we have lowered our WACC rate to 11% from 16% previously. We raise our PT to E8.5 but given we are still questioning GDP recovery, amid slow-moving structural reforms and investments, we reiterate our DOI rating. We do acknowledge that abnormal velocity rates could dislocate our valuation in the short term…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com