What’s new? Helex FY 2021 results published at the end of March held no
surprises given we already knew the ADV @ E71m (+10% yoy). Still, there was
a E1m revenue miss compared to our estimates, that went all the way down to
the bottom line and the dividend announced at E9.1m/E0.15 DPS/c.4% yield (no
capital return this time).

This note is about investing, not trading or event-driven ideas. We believe our OI rated stocks will outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis in the next 12-18 months. We recommend you own OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Alpha Bank and ADMIE. We downgrade OTE given it is trading at our target price. We assume the pandemic will be less of a risk; we consider the end of free money and elevated costs and reiterate cash flow conversion as our #1 criterion.

What’s new? 2021 trading data show ADV @ E71m (was E65m in 2020) and velocity rate @ 29%, which is lower than 2020 and the average witnessed post 2011, albeit on a higher market cap overall for Greek equities. Secondly, 2022 YTD has been strong with a 7-session average ADV of E74m. The impressive part is the >E100m ADV of the last three sessions. Too early to judge but we must go back to 2015 to spot a January with ADV >E100m. Conclusion: We need a better (cheaper) valuation than 11x EBITDA or 20x EPS x-cash 2021E to compensate for the opportunity cost (i.e., value trap or dead money risk) associated with owing the stock.

With this note we briefly share our views on all the names we cover. We start with our OI picks, followed by Radar and DOI names. We have added several names in our Universe, most of which on a Not Rated (NR) basis.

With this note we update our views on Greek equities…