Government Reshuffling; Our thoughts
The Greek government announced a large-scale cabinet reshuffling, with 24 members keeping their posts…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
The Greek government announced a large-scale cabinet reshuffling, with 24 members keeping their posts…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
We remain structurally negative; Greece does not ‘own’ the adjustment program, debt relief is not in sight, banks are struggling with NPES, GDP cannot grow more than +1.5% p.a.; we single-out three (3) cash flow/dividend yield stories and rate as OI.
Tourism / Fourlis / Helex / Banks
Real GDP was revised downwards at -1.4% yoy (from -1.3%) marking the third consecutive deteriorating quarter. It is hard to see GDP growing by more than 1.0%-1.5% yoy post 2017 and this after private consumption (70% of GDP) stabilizes from the -new- austerity overhang; news on dividends -some brought forward to avoid the tax increase…
In this RG F4T we focus on Interest Income from Impaired loans (III); in 2015, 37% of NII and 71% of recurring PPP consists of interest from impaired loans, on our estimates (4 systemic banks); excluding RG estimated 2010-2015 accumulated III from TBV …