Tourism / Fourlis / Helex / Banks

Real GDP was revised downwards at -1.4% yoy (from -1.3%) marking the third consecutive deteriorating quarter. It is hard to see GDP growing by more than 1.0%-1.5% yoy post 2017 and this after private consumption (70% of GDP) stabilizes from the -new- austerity overhang; news on dividends -some brought forward to avoid the tax increase next year- dominate the ones on growth; equities have limited structural upside, if any…

In this RG F4T we focus on Interest Income from Impaired loans (III); in 2015, 37% of NII and 71% of recurring PPP consists of interest from impaired loans, on our estimates (4 systemic banks);  excluding RG estimated 2010-2015 accumulated III from TBV …

Greece will have to present measures of E5.4bn/3% GDP plus a contingency package (and mechanism) with additional measures of E3.6bn/2%. It looks like the Greek government is having a hard time with ‘the negotiations’. We see two scenarios…

Greek equities are down 20% ytd … however, not everything is falling apart. We rate Grivalia Properties OWN IT and we believe…to continue reading this report contact@researchgreece.com