We do not expect operating leverage to be unleashed this year since we model IKEA related EBITDA margin at 8% and 9% by 2017 which compares to an all time record high of 19.7% back in 2006. To OWN the shares today we need to discount …to continue reading contact@researchgreece.com
Fourlis – Remains a DON’T OWN IT
March 16th, 2015Fourlis – Immense operating leverage – unleashed next year?
August 27th, 2014We don’t think so – hence we stick with our DOI rating. In 2Q14 Intersport was the strongest link managing PBT of cE2m / IKEA lost cE2m. We present (again)our own plug and play calculator for IKEA related EBITDA. And conclude to OWN the shares today we need to discount 5% LfL in 15E, and 5% in 16E. We do not model this and maintain our DON’T OWN IT. For those who can wait 2 years Fourlis might turn out an excellent investment. We model average IKEA sales at E40m in 2016; a 4% beat translates to cE1 per share. At E73m; average over 2005-13, our target price ups by E10; will they ever revert to that?
Fourlis – IKEA plug and play reveals huge upside
June 8th, 2014Our EPS estimates are unchanged; our target price stays the same. We present our own plug and play calculator for IKEA related EBITDA. And conclude to OWN the shares today we need to discount 5% LfL in 2015 followed by another …
Fourlis – Perhaps the best play if Greek GDP grows >3%
March 1st, 2014We do not change our estimates. Our target price goes up at E5.5 on a much lower risk free rate and can go up by another E0.5-E0.7 for every 1% IKEA LfL beat. If our sensitivity analysis is correct shares would reach double digits on …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
Fourlis 3Q13 – IKEA is not there yet
November 26th, 2013We up our 2013 & 2014 group EBITDA forecasts by 14-22% on better IKEA EBITDA margins. Not confident to up meaningfully IKEA related sales. And conclude on marginal IKEA profits this year vs. losses last year. We think current share price discounts IKEA LfL at 4-5% in 2014 and 2015…to access this report contact@researchgreece.com
