This note is about investing, not trading or event-driven ideas. We believe our OI rated stocks will outperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis in the next 12-18 months. We recommend you own OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Alpha Bank and ADMIE. We downgrade OTE given it is trading at our target price. We assume the pandemic will be less of a risk; we consider the end of free money and elevated costs and reiterate cash flow conversion as our #1 criterion.

What’s new? We revisited our model. Covid lockdowns aside, the main drivers of the investment case are a) new IKEA stores sales, b) REIT economics and c) mortgage lending. We discuss these in our current note. Conclusion. You should probably stick with Jumbo in the Greek retail space until Fourlis investment case becomes more tangible / visible…

In 2021, focus should be on EBITDAR margins; for the IKEA division we model an uplift of 50 bps at 10% (11.7% by 2023) and for Intersport which may have been zero last year, 3-4% and to flirt with double digits by 2023. Fourlis does not provide such a breakdown for now and we believe they will as they have excellent disclosure from corporate Greece. We believe IFRS 16 has increased the modelling perplexity for Fourlis. We calculate…

With this note we briefly share our views on all the names we cover. We start with our OI picks, followed by Radar and DOI names. We have added several names in our Universe, most of which on a Not Rated (NR) basis.

We don’t expect IKEA store LfL sales growth to…contact@researchgreece.com