Fourlis announced a deal with Foot Locker to acquire the latter´s operations in Greece and Romania (6 stores + ecommerce; price not disclosed) and to establish exclusive licensing agreements in 6 additional SEE countries (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Montenegro).

Fourlis provided 2024 guidance for retail operations during the general assembly (June 21), calling for sales/EBITDA/EBIT of E550m/E41m/E26m or +5.5%/+14.2%/+23.2% yoy. These numbers are below our estimates by 3% in sales terms and by 9%-14% in EBITDA and EBIT. Management said guidance is volume driven and conservative amid a rather tight consumption environment.

Q4 EBITDA came in better than expected by +10% thanks to the higher gross margin in IKEA. DPS announced at E0.12/2.8% yield. Fourlis provided pro forma retail accounts deconsolidating Trade Estates (TE). This is the first step for us to understand the dynamics of the retail business.
Conclusion. The second one is deconsolidating TE and using the proceeds to reduce retail net debt and interest cost. The final step is to maintain high single digit sales growth in both IKEA and sports goods, including through new stores. Management guided

Q2 results were impressive, with both IKEA and sporting goods businesses growing their sales double-digit (L4L), on higher prices but mainly on higher volume, given supply/product availability issues have been resolved. Gross margin improved qoq/flat yoy and operating leverage sent EBITDAL +76% yoy. Management says H2 will be higher than H1 in absolute terms, although we expect the growth rate to face a stronger base.

’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines.
Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36% YTD, so now…