Following Credia Bank’s successful E300m capital increase (E280m net of expenses) and the issuance of 375m new shares (19% dilution), we revisit our valuation against the CMD financial targets announced on March 9. These incorporate a 70% stake in HSBC Malta on a pro forma basis, with first-time consolidation expected in 2027.

Q4 marked a strong close to 2025, with PPP flat to above our estimates on: robust volume; NII edging slightly higher qoq; strong fees; contained CoR => RoTE trending higher. Payout ratios were confirmed and/or raised.

Banks are guiding for sustained loan growth and a steeper base-rate curve to lift RoTE > 16% in 2027–28. 2026 is viewed as a transition year, with average Euribor 25–30bps lower yoy and bolt-on acquisitions being integrated, leaving RoTE broadly flat or slightly below 2025 levels.

15%-25% upside from current levels. We estimate systemic Greek banks have +15%-25% further upside from current levels, based on 14.7% RoTE (from 13.8%*; avg systemic banks), 10% CoE (from 12%) and 0% tg (unchanged). Lowering CoE was long overdue (we had done it only for BoC). The implied -market assigned- CoE is already there (see table below).

Credia Bank has entered into a put option agreement with HSBC Cont Europe for the acquisition of 70.03% stake in HSBC Malta for E200m in cash or 0.48x H1 2025 TBV; this multiple is much lower than what we expected and much lower than either HSBC Malta or Bank of Valetta avg YTD P/TBV 2025 (0.80x-0.85x). Somebody wanted to sell asap.

We initiate coverage on Attica Bank. The 5th largest Greek bank by market share has completed a Herculean task in less than 6 months: merging with same-size Pancreta bank, cleaning up NPEs and recapitalizing its balance sheet.