As if you have not received enough banking quarterly updates by now, we are sharing our own Sector Map, in which we have compiled the main Q1 numbers as reported by banks (adjusted by ourselves), side-by-side to make it super easy to compare and spot the differences. You will need to click on the excel…
With all IFRS reports published (finally), we present our sector map for Q4/FY 2023. Our views per bank have already been analyzed in stand-alone notes. In short: if you wish to bet on P/TBV moving towards 1.0x TBV, go with NBG. If you prefer to bet on P/TBV convergence, go with Alpha. To avoid being…
Q4 Sector Map confirms NBG as our top pick. Highest NII, NIM, PPPM; RoTE; CET1; S3 covg combined with lowest NPE%, CoR; ECB funding. Additionally, it recorded the biggest increase in S1 loans qoq / decrease in S2+3 loans. The bank benefits from a low time-deposit mix at 18% (vs 24%-34% peers), therefore enjoying a…
Alpha Bank published a strong set of Q2 results, with NII +4% qoq/+45% yoy, hitting 11% annualized RoTE (+20bps qoq; on our estimates), on a further widening loan-deposit spread (low deposit pass-through), intensified by higher base rates. Management raised 2023 EPS by +16% and 2023 RoTE guidance by +100bps, to >11% (both reported and AT1…
’If you cannot explain it simply, then you do not understand it well enough.’’ Testing ourselves, we share our understanding of each Greek investment case we cover within a few lines. Conclusions: Our base case scenario is materializing, i.e., Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. Equities have re-rated and are +36%…