The basic scenario endorsed by BoG/Banks/SSM is -40%/E42bn lower NPEs by 2019, dominated by re-performing initiatives (80-85%). Our exercise shows this would be totally manageable by GR banks capital-wise. Still, we doubt quarterly NPE targets will be met…
In this RG F4T we focus on Interest Income from Impaired loans (III); in 2015, 37% of NII and 71% of recurring PPP consists of interest from impaired loans, on our estimates (4 systemic banks); excluding RG estimated 2010-2015 accumulated III from TBV …
We have not become structurally positive but we are meeting the Greek government halfway in its U-turn towards implementing the adjustment program; we assign an OWN IT rating on Eurobank (0.39x TBV 2016E)– the only Greek bank with upside (+30%) from current levels based on RoTE/CoE implied P/TBV valuation without accounting for future capital returns. It…
ECB CA 2015 results (AQR + 2.5YRS stress tests) revealed a capital shortfall of E4.4bn (baseline) and E14.4bn (adverse); hardly a surprise given latest speculation in the press and overall expectations; Alpha and Eurobank scored better and theoretically enjoy an easier task accessing private investors; their equity proposition at baseline (2017) 0.39x TBV/2.5x PPP and…
In this RG F4T we focus on the recapitalization of the Greek banks. Our aim is to outline the most important aspects of this process which authorities aim to complete by year-end and before the bail-in directive kicks in. As per most recent press stories the recap amount will not exceed E15bn – i.e. much…