In this RG F4T we focus on Interest Income from Impaired loans (III); in 2015, 37% of NII and 71% of recurring PPP consists of interest from impaired loans, on our estimates (4 systemic banks); excluding RG estimated 2010-2015 accumulated III from TBV …
ECB CA 2015 results (AQR + 2.5YRS stress tests) revealed a capital shortfall of E4.4bn (baseline) and E14.4bn (adverse); hardly a surprise given latest speculation in the press and overall expectations; Alpha and Eurobank scored better and theoretically enjoy an easier task accessing private investors; their equity proposition at baseline (2017) 0.39x TBV/2.5x PPP and…
In this RG F4T we focus on the recapitalization of the Greek banks. Our aim is to outline the most important aspects of this process which authorities aim to complete by year-end and before the bail-in directive kicks in. As per most recent press stories the recap amount will not exceed E15bn – i.e. much…
Greeks voted NO to creditors’ proposals. Now what? We believe a realistic scenario requires a debt relief of c.E100bn (1/3 of public debt) as per our updated DSA exercise. A new program needs to be realistic or it will not work. Considering the concessions that creditors will have to make (financing, debt restructuring) such a…
Greek Government Calls for a Referendum – 5 months after national elections and 4 days before the bailout adjustment program expires, the Greek Government announced it will be holding a referendum on July 5 on the measures suggested by the institutions (Troika); the truth is the latter (and the rest of the world) will be…