FY results in line with our estimates, excluding the E13m one-off tax. E0.2/sh return to shareholders is below our estimates. We reiterate ADV of E120m in 2014 (YTD at E106m) and E180m in 2015 and raise 2017E to E300m (from E250m). Terminal velocity rate at 68% and market cap/GDP at 52%. This pace implies double-digit…
Q4 13 EPS at E0.136 Vs. RGe E0.134 on lower sales, better margins; E10m of FCF helped by E8m of working capital sent FY figure to E24m (was E10m in 2012); not bad for an E265m market cap company with net cash of E22m. Do not expect the same FCF in 2014, though. The first…
We raise our 2014-2016 EBITDA estimates by 10-15% mainly on cost cutting; combined with a lower discount rate for the fixed line business we up our target price to E13.7; shares are up by 35% in the last three months. Is there any further upside from here? See our report attached (18 pages)… to access…
We argue 2013 marks the end of a bad year for Greek refiners. We believe Motor Oil is the best way to exploit a -gradual- recovery in refining margins (middle cracks) driven by increasing demand for oil products in Greece, normalization of crude sourcing and capacity re-balancing. We revise our EBITDA estimates by 15-30% in…
4Q was unexciting with volume +1%, of which developing was -5% and emerging +4%. E per case down 2.7% (-1.9% in 3Q, -1.5% in 2Q) on our calculations. In 2013 net income was E221m and FCF at E444m, broadly in line with our estimates. We model EBIT margin at 6.4% this year, 7.6% next and…