Status quo or privatization? We see good value in scenario B according to which the state separates infrastructure assets, introduces RAB model and awards (privatizes) the concession business; valuation ranges from E10 per share to E15 per share; latter reflects network expansion and streamlining of costs – in line with a return on RAB of…
The US did not add to profits, Egypt took away some with good chances to take out more. And the reason behind our 7% EBITDA cuts on average over 2014-16. On the other hand outlook is still good enough to warrant and OWN IT rating. This year incremental EBITDA at E34m with ….
Earnings at an inflexion point on decent FCF but not good enough for a positive thesis, despite record high FCF in the previous years due to past profits from construction. In 2016 we see net income at E37m and FCF at E61m – we think is decent but not fireworks. Attiki Odos traffic to grow…
Q1 showed mixed trends with strong EBITDA coming out of the Greek fixed business (opex cuts) and weak EBITDA out of mobile operations (competition/MTR). We only fine-tune our estimates at this stage as the fixed line strength in Greece was anticipated while the mobile weakness was offset by better fixed ops in Romania. Our FY…
NBG will raise E2.5bn through a book building process. Based on our adjusted price target for potential issue prices we find the process attractive for an issue price below E2.25 per share (20% discount to May 2 closing price). See our report attached for acquisition price and multiples; bad loan absorption capacity post capital; pro-forma…