The important news is OPAP will be paying a lower GGR tax rate on legacy games in 2021-2030, given the new licensing regime became effective in October and the state has not objected to the new -lower- tax stream. P&L wise, on our -quite complicated but exhaustive- estimates, OPAP will be effectively saving 27ppt of Greek legacy GGR or E290m p.a. for the next 10 years. This reflects the difference between…

PPC does not produce enough electricity and hence buys 30% of its needs from the market to service its customers. With the target model live, PPC keeps on buying at prices lower than hoped; per MWh at E45 to sell to households at E100 and makes a cool electricity supply EBIT of E400m. We think electricity production is…

We estimate reported cash flow of E440m in 2021 plus a (minimum) special dividend of E100m-E120m from the sale of TR fixed. OTE’s declared remuneration policy implies shareholders will pocket E400m in cash dividends and the rest E150m via buybacks. Adjusted free cash flow will not exceed E540m on our estimates (from E610m in 2020) due to the loss of Romanian EBITDA, partially offset by cost-cutting. Beyond 2021, reported cash flows and ordinary remuneration should rise further to E550m on cost cutting and lower capex. We discount cash flows at 7% and up our 2021 PT to…

With this note we present our thoughts on Piraeus Bank Contingent Convertible bond (CoCo) potential conversion into equity. We cannot help feeling there is a lack of a strategy, especially from the state’s side, on how and when to exit its holding in Piraeus Bank and at what price. On a second note, the alleged share capital increase proposal by a group of shareholders draws the attention to the elephant in the room: which is how will Piraeus further reduce its NPE backlog, over and above the E7bn combined NPE securitizations currently in the making. Needless to say we remain…

We revisit our model and we up our 2020E EBITDA by…