Q3 results came in line with our estimates. Cost-cutting continues to compensate for top line weakness (macro, MTR cuts). We fine-tune our 2013-2016 numbers; roll forward our valuation by one year; raise our PT to E8.0/share and reiterate our DOI rating. Cost-cutting is priced in. Top-line is not and this is what OTE needs…to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

3Q was unexciting with sales -5% and comparable EBIT margin upping 40 bps at 10.8% on our calculations; this is in the price. We model EBIT margin at 6.2% this year, 7.4% next and 9% in 2015E. We still believe is very hard to achieve double digit margins in 2014. We agree with management 2013 to be the inflexion year for operating margins… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

Results out on Nov 7. Group sales at E1bn and EBITDA at E380m. Last year’s VRS (overall 1,809 fewer employees at end-2012) should help fixed EBITDA margin cling on 36%, which means +15% more EBITDA yoy at E135m. This is more than welcome but it cannot serve as an indefinite/sustainable strategy… to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

Results out on Oct 30. Strong margins to drive EPS +14% yoy, on same pace with previous quarters. Better sourcing of materials and lower personnel costs behind our +130bps yoy gross margin estimate. Clean net income to reach E10.2m (+51% yoy) on a 9M basis. This puts full year net profit company guidance of E13.9m on upside risk territory. How much of this is in the price…? to access this report  contact@researchgreece.com

To access our spreadsheet contact@researchgreece.com

Exercise 1. Basic Plug-and-Play calculator (GDP growth, primary surplus, interest rates); Perform your own Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greek public debt. Plug your own assumptions on Greek GDP growth, average interest rates and primary surplus for 2016-2022. Plug in your own haircut assumption (debt reduction). Sensitivity tables automatically displayed for different combinations of GDP growth, primary surplus, haircut and interest rates …

Exercise 2. Advanced Plug-and-Play calculator assuming re-investment of interest savings; Same as exercise 1 plus assumptions regarding re-investment of savings from lower interest rates.Plug in your fiscal multiplier on interest savings re-invested to Greek GDP ..