Considering that circa 9% RoTE guidance: a) is based on pre-tax or core operating income and b) circa usually means ‘lower than’… we reiterate our DOI rating because the risk-reward profile of NBG at current 0.50x TBV 2021E is not cheap/attractive enough. Clarity provided on the E6bn Frontier securitization, NPE reduction plan, loan moratoria update and clean operating income evolution – All confirmed that NBG, together with Eurobank, stand out in terms of asset quality and hitting RoTE 9%+ already in 2022. We believe the above are…

Why swapping GGBs? It is the only way to M2M and book the upside (and keep on board) all or part of those GGBs classified as Held to Collect and which are amortized at cost. The alternative would be to sell them (at current – higher- prices) and re-buy them from the market. The swap demonstrates in the most powerful way, the impact of QE and lower interest rates…

If Greek Banks do not believe in Santa Claus after recent developments, then no one ever will: a) on December 10, the ECB prolonged its targeted lending support (TLTRO III @ -1%) by an additional 12 months while raising the maximum amount banks can borrow (55% from 50%); b) the expanded PEPP will include E31bn of GGBs (from E23bn); c) the GR government will reportedly extend the NPE guarantee scheme ‘Hercules’ into 2021-2022. For Greek Banks this translates to an excellent opportunity to support their earnings (funding cost, bond gains) while cleaning up their Greek NPEs (securitizations) by 2022. For investors it means they can now focus on RoTE 2022 and beyond. We upgrade our rating on…

With this note we briefly share our views on all the names we cover. We start with our OI picks, followed by Radar and DOI names. We have added several names in our Universe, most of which on a Not Rated (NR) basis.

Conclusion: we reiterate our…