Motor Oil: Lower Refining Margin in H2 2016
We brought down our refining margin estimate for 2016 but did not change our numbers post 2017; we expect…
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Motor Oil: Record EBITDA but Margins Impossible to Predict
Record P&L and Cash flow numbers in 2015 but the question remains whether that was the last superb year of the cycle. 2016 has started off strong and most EUR refiners expect margins to remain at high levels. We account for above-the-cycle EBITDA and cash flows in 2016 while our mid-cycle margin valuation means we…
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Greek Refineries: Stars Are Aligned
Most EUR MED refineries expect strong margins to persist (Q4 so far is strong) driven by low oil prices (supply glut), crude sourcing, healthy demand, strong USD and capacity rationalization. There is no way of knowing for how long though; on balance most signs are positive: USD should remain strong ahead of higher US interest…
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Motor Oil: Strong Trend Continues but Remains DOI
We up our 2015 EBITDA estimate by 60% at E400m – which would mark a record-high figure for MOH; driven by resilient refining margin (cost-driven), crude sourcing and max capacity…plus a quite strong dollar; FCFE >E200m should give the opportunity to deleverage the balance sheet <1.5x equity and accommodate a hefty dividend yield (>5%); we…
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Motor Oil – Downgrade to DOI
Q2 refining margins were weaker than Q1 and forced us to revise our FY2014 EBITDA by 18%; we now expect $1/bbl lower refining margins than before for 2015-16E, triggering further cuts in our 2015-16 EBITDA by 24% and 11% respectively. EUR refining margins have rallied in July owing to lower crude costs and lower refinery…