What’s new? Jumbo announced FY 2021 results on Apr 12 (had already released headline numbers on Mar 8 and Jan 7). Sales/EBITDA/net income grew +20%/+46%/56% yoy. Cash flow almost doubled at E283m, helped by lower working capital and despite higher capex. Net cash climbed to E540m (from E350m in 2020).

What’s new? Jumbo provided a trading statement for the month of February, own estimates for Q1 2022 and the actual gross margin, EBITDA, and net cash numbers for FY 2021. In the paragraphs that follow we provide our view on all these.

What’s new? 2021 trading update. Jumbo said FY 2021 group sales grew by +19.87% yoy. Growth reflects lockdown-driven base effects like the one in December where sales grew by +95% yoy and the one in November with sales up by +60% yoy (we calculate Q4 up by +50% yoy). The impressive part is that 2021 sales were just 2% short of the sales booked in lockdown-free 2019. Jumbo thinks so too. Because this is just a trading update, there is zero info on profitability, and therefore no way of telling how much of this growth reflects price increases (if any), considering the rising energy/raw material/shipping costs witnessed (worldwide) in Q4 2021. According to the trading statement, management implemented a new strategy regarding the product mix, along with rescheduling the operation of the new stores.

This note/spreadsheet attached presents our 2022 estimates. We believe Jumbo will…

Jumbo released 2020 Covid defying results. Sales down E150m yoy at E694m and net income down by E40m at E140m. EBIT margin down 210bps at 24.8%. FCF before dividends at E163m. Net cash at E360m up by E30m, with E122m in dividend. Romania returned a PBT margin of 31% at par with last year. On 14 stores profits grew 15% yoy to account for 1/3 of group profits. Management puts forward a DPS of E0.47 at the assembly in June.