Weak Greece vs. better Romania and Bulgaria; no room for upgrades; in 2Q15 group sales grew 5.7% yoy which compares to 11% in 1Q15; we calculate Greek LfL sales growth at … to access this note contact@researchgreece.com

2014 finished strong on sales +8% or 1.2pct better than our estimates. Cyprus better than expected and potentially responsible for most of the sales delta. On the other hand shares are off 30% from this year’s highs. We see no fundamental reason for such underperformance = reiterate our OWN IT rating. We model Greek LfL of 2.3% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016 – it could be better on …

Greece is +13% since the elections with ADV >E280m; we conclude this is driven by re-rating rather than upgrades in earnings; only a handful of companies have scope for upgrade in earnings in our view; the ones that combine both catalysts (re-rating and EPS upside) are Jumbo (OI), Titan (OI), Eurobank (OI) and Motor Oil (OI); in our research note we compare 2016E with 2007-08 peak earnings (scope for upgrades; p. 5); we test 200bps lower discount rates (re-rating; p. 8); we highlight points from IMF’s latest review on Greece (p. 9).  …to access this report contact@researchgreece.com

3Q14 EBITDA +14% if we normalise for last year’s hit in Cyprus related deposits. 3Q14 sales +9%; Cyprus better than expected and responsible for 44% of the delta. Greek sales +2%; implies flattish to negative LfL and the reason behind our new Greek LfL of  …

More stores, strong tourism, social dividend, a strong Euro… more profits, more cash flow = Upgrade to OWN IT. 3Q14 sales +9% yoy; Cyprus adding most of the growth? Greek sales in positive territory; could imply flattish LfL in 3Q; a sequential deterioration. Albeit hopefully improving on better tourism, more … to access this report … contact@researchgreece.com