2023 was the second consecutive year with ref margin >$18/bbl, EUR/USD below 1.10 and vol @ 13.4m tn or higher. MOH generated EBITDA of E1.48bn o/w E1.18bn from refining. Still, Q4 EBITDA was below our estimate by -15%/E63m on -14% lower vol and $2/bbl lower margin (gasoline crack). But FY cash flow of E496m was…
PPA reported FY 2023 results below our estimates on higher payroll (E7.5m diff) and other expenses (E10m diff) causing an EBITDA miss of -5% (E6m). The higher effective tax rate (31% vs 22%) made things worse (E7m diff), with net income -17% (E13.5m diff). DPS of E1.34 is consistent with a 50% payout, included in…
With all IFRS reports published (finally), we present our sector map for Q4/FY 2023. Our views per bank have already been analyzed in stand-alone notes. In short: if you wish to bet on P/TBV moving towards 1.0x TBV, go with NBG. If you prefer to bet on P/TBV convergence, go with Alpha. To avoid being…
Sarantis published Q4 results (Mar 14) +30% above our estimates and >60% their guidance in EBIT terms; but a heavier ‘bomb’ came from 2024-2028 targets about doubling EBITDA to E120m and generating >E375m of aggregate pre-dividend cash flow, (55% of mkt cap on the day). This is without new acquisitions except for the integration of…
What’s new? Q4 refining margin, clean EBITDA and net income came in lower than what we expected. But cash flow did better thanks to lower taxes and capex. Even so, FY 2023 was the second consecutive above-mid-cycle-refining year for Helleniq. Management announced an E0.60/7.3% residual DPS/yield (we expected E0.56) on top of the E0.30 already…