MOH and Helleniq reported strong Q2 results. Τhe surging refining cracks / benchmark margin in July-August force us to a) make big revisions in our 2026 estimates and b) shift our refining valuation from multiples to DCF.
Q2 NII/COP/net income before one-offs came in +0.9%/+0.6%/+11% vs the bank’s own compiled consensus. Higher trading and income from associates explain the deviation in the bottom line. As well as the +310bps qoq increase in RoTE (post AT1). Net credit expansion of E1.6bn with net loans +9% yoy. CET1 at 14.7% (-10bps qoq).
Q2 NII/PPP/Net income norm at E188m/E158m/E117m or +4%/+10%/+11% qoq, on stronger NII, other income and contained opex. Norm RoTE (AT1, avg TBV) at 16.2% (+160bps qoq). CET1 at 20.9% (+40bps qoq). Excess cash (>15% CET1) at E625m.
NII/PPP core/Net income before one-offs came in +0.4%/+2.1%/+2.3% above NBG’s own compiled consensus. Fees were +4% better. RoTE clean post AT1 at 14.9% (RG calcs) from 16.2% in Q1, mainly due to trading income volatility. CET1 at 17.3% (flat). CoR <40bps with NPEs at 2.3%. Net credit expansion at 1.4bn in Q2 from E0.5bn in…
Q2 NII, core PPP and core PBT (i.e. excl other and trading income) came in +2%/+2%/+4% better than Alpha’s own compiled consensus. We single out the strong NII performance (+5% qoq, +9% yoy) and net loan expansion (+E1.6bn or +4% qoq, +12% yoy), with both pointing to higher FY 2026 numbers vs guidance.