Fourlis provided 2024 guidance for retail operations during the general assembly (June 21), calling for sales/EBITDA/EBIT of E550m/E41m/E26m or +5.5%/+14.2%/+23.2% yoy. These numbers are below our estimates by 3% in sales terms and by 9%-14% in EBITDA and EBIT. Management said guidance is volume driven and conservative amid a rather tight consumption environment.
In a rather unexpected move, today the government announced another windfall tax on refineries, this time on 2023 excess earnings. The local press says the government estimates it will collect E300m from both refineries. This compares with E625m collected from the windfall tax on 2022 excess earnings (Ε358m MOH; E267m Helleniq). Assuming the formula has…
In the following paragraphs we are trying to answer the following questions: 1) What is the valuation of Greek banks based on their own 2024-2026 guidance? 2) What are the key inputs/buffers? 3) What is the sensitivity to different CoE estimates? 4) What is the sensitivity to higher RoTE 2024? 5) Where do we differ…
Q1 results were boring. This is not necessarily bad. It means demand is holding up. It also indicates that with prices, rates, and margins at/close to the peak, chances are earnings have small upside from here. Leaving volume growth (lending, subscribers, consumption, demand) the key buffer for earnings and cash flows. Underlying demand data (file…
Q1 2024 results point to another above mid-cycle refining margin year. Volumes, EUR/USD, opex and RES contribution are all supporting our adjusted (total) EBITDA FY24 of E1.0bn for Helleniq and E1.3bn for MOH. Which may be lower yoy but big enough to finance the ongoing earnings diversification and solid dividends. Conclusion. Our preference for MOH…