OPAP reported a strong set of Q4 results with GGR/adj EBITDA/adj net income of E648m/E245m/E130m or +11%/+24%/+19% yoy and +7%/+14%/-15% vs our estimates. Driven by a better payout and customer engagement in sports betting, in both offline and online, plus lower opex.
Sarantis Q4/FY results showed a stronger underlying performance vs guidance and our own estimates, leading to a higher dividend for the year and a higher guidance for 2025. Not least in cash flow terms.
Alpha has agreed to buy Astrobank Cyprus (14 branches) for no less than E205m or at c.0.8x TBV 2024E. This multiple could go closer to 1.0x TBV if Astrobank’s net NPEs (E73m, to be carved out) take a hit on Astrobank’s equity. The acquisition is not included in Alpha Bank’s updated 2025-2027 guidance provided last week.
Q4/FY adjusted numbers included E100m insurance compensation. Excluding this, Q4/FY EBITDA at E173m (-35% yoy)/E926m (-25% yoy) was below our estimates by -20%/-5%; bottom line was in the red by E50m/E40m. We understand earnings will not recover in 2025 given the two scheduled shutdowns in Elefsina and Aspropyrgos refineries, even if margins move higher yoy.
Eurobank, Alpha and NBG reported Q4 results last week. And provided new guidance for 2025-2027. High single-digit loan growth, fee expansion, hedging, and low CoR will mitigate the impact from lower rates. With RoTE settling at 14%-15% for NBG and Eurobank; 13%-14% for Piraeus; and 11%-12% for Alpha (guidance).